Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
