Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
